Where can Haiti go from here.
Haitian hillside outside of the Government Zone. - (WIX, 2024)
In the past four months, the situation in Haiti has escalated from minor gang-related skirmishes to all-out civil conflict on the small island nation. With former Prime Minister Ariel Henry out of power, the Caribbean nation is effectively leaderless. Many have moved towards the Dominican Republic with few options for fleeing the conflict. However, the Dominican Republic has made it clear that no Haitians will be allowed inside its walls and has even employed guards with tasers to resist any attempters (BBC, 2024). The situation is dire. With over 15,000 people immediately displaced, Port au Prince under 80% occupation by gang control, the UN and ICRC fleeing the country, and minimal international attention, the country appeared to be heading toward a total collapse (BBC, 2024).
In a turn of events that many in Haiti see as their hopeful future, CARICOM (Caribbean Community) and the USA have teamed up to try and find a solution to this devastating problem. Currently, the UN, CARICOM, the USA, and Kenya are discussing the implementation of Kenyan peacekeepers to the nation as soon as possible, with even the USA supplying 100 million USD to try and support the quick turnover time. Discussions are also being held regarding elections taking place as soon as possible to defy "Barbecue," the leader of G9 (the largest gang on the island). However, G9 and its leader are staunchly resisting any setups of traditional, transitional councils being placed to foster a new elected leader into power.
Unfortunately, this is not the only future issue for Haiti. The WFP states that around 1.4 million people live in famine-level hunger situations, and around 4.35 million are in potential danger (WFP, 2024). This, coupled with "Long-stalled, half-hearted attempts to rally a new multinational security force and shore up Haiti's failed state have received inadequate international support." (ChathamHouse, 2024), has caused destabilization to go unchecked. Of course, it is essential to note that these issues did not spring up out of the blue. Since the UN peacekeeping force left in 2019, issues have been boiling. Residual damages from the Haitian Earthquakes in 2010, the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, and prison breaks since 2023 perpetrated by G9 have caused a general destabilization of Haiti. Neither the UN nor the ICRC have been able to slow the spread of violence, and now, the Dominican decision to block off the border has created a potential situation for disaster. With threats from G9, including genocide, Haiti has begun to prepare for the worst (CBS, 2024).
WFP, the UN, the USA, and other CARICOM nations are attempting to create "air bridges " to deliver food and resources to civilians (CNN, 2024). However, all processes have slowed as the true nature of the situation on the ground is not entirely clear. All of this, coupled with a complete misunderstanding of the scale and size of the conflict on the ground, has meant any forces prepared currently may be going in blind or without proper information to handle the situation. "As the core—and only deployment-ready—force, the Kenyan contingent is wholly insufficient to provide meaningful reinforcement to the Haitian National Police. It is also inappropriate to center the UN mission on policing when Haiti's situation requires a military response." (FP, 2024). This misunderstanding could result in a massive civil war in the coming weeks. The UN and other groups are now looking for a restructuring solution with regional organizations. However, all attempts appear to move much slower than G9 and its control of the country.
Haiti has an uncertain future in the Caribbean. No leader or transitional government in power, a gang group controlling almost the whole nation, no true resistant force prepared, fleeing UN and ICRC help, and slow responses from international attention has meant that Haitians are turning to their neighbor for help, and the Dominican Republic is unlikely to provide it without UN/USA/CARICOM support. If international aid and forces do not arrive soon, it is unclear what form of government, if any, will take shape in the near future.
Bibliography
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